September 06, 2009
The NL hand.
I think the flop is ok. I didnâ€™t want to c/r because Iâ€™m a bit iffy on whether or not heâ€™d be 3-betting as a bluff or 3-betting for value. I think heâ€™s folding air, though he may barrel it 2x (so I can c/c, c/c), Iâ€™m not getting him off a jack until the river. I basically intended to play a small pot.
On the turn i felt he either has a jack going for thin value (rare, I think it has to be AJ or KJ only). I think a 4 probably checks back the flop. So maybe 44/44, AJ, QQ+. The rest is all air just barreling.
Once the river hit I honestly felt the villain could be bet/folding a strong jack, sometimes a 4 (again, rare but I donâ€™t think he has it that often). This is a spot I would normally just c/c or c/f but I think crai is best because the villain was the type of guy to not necessarily pot control a strong jack on the turn.
As far as the PLO hand goes, villain was calling 3-bets with like any 2 and just playing bad postflop. I was keeping pots small successfully when I wanted to. He has potted the past 2x when checked to however and I just felt his turn range was way wider than would justify a fold.
Once all the straights missed I think villain folding 2 pair is super reasonable. He needs like KJ3x or something for this play to be bad. I can very reasonably have KKxx here. And he can certainly be betting jacks up for value vs. AA. This villain was certainly capable of that.
I was much more confident in my PLO c/r than my NL one but luckily they both worked.