September 06, 2009
The Hands
The NL hand.
I think the flop is ok. I didn’t want to c/r because I’m a bit iffy on whether or not he’d be 3-betting as a bluff or 3-betting for value. I think he’s folding air, though he may barrel it 2x (so I can c/c, c/c), I’m not getting him off a jack until the river. I basically intended to play a small pot.
On the turn i felt he either has a jack going for thin value (rare, I think it has to be AJ or KJ only). I think a 4 probably checks back the flop. So maybe 44/44, AJ, QQ+. The rest is all air just barreling.
Once the river hit I honestly felt the villain could be bet/folding a strong jack, sometimes a 4 (again, rare but I don’t think he has it that often). This is a spot I would normally just c/c or c/f but I think crai is best because the villain was the type of guy to not necessarily pot control a strong jack on the turn.
As far as the PLO hand goes, villain was calling 3-bets with like any 2 and just playing bad postflop. I was keeping pots small successfully when I wanted to. He has potted the past 2x when checked to however and I just felt his turn range was way wider than would justify a fold.
Once all the straights missed I think villain folding 2 pair is super reasonable. He needs like KJ3x or something for this play to be bad. I can very reasonably have KKxx here. And he can certainly be betting jacks up for value vs. AA. This villain was certainly capable of that.
I was much more confident in my PLO c/r than my NL one but luckily they both worked.
2 Comments:
2fouroffsuit posted on September 11, 2009 at 05:34 AM
On the NL hand,
Is this a spot where the villain would be likely to 2 barrel with clubs since he is picking up more pot equity? I think that he is just as likely to have some clubs in his range (Ax, Kx, QTish type hands and down on to SCish type hands with clubs) that might go for 2barrels here and then not be bet-folding the river. This makes me lean towards not liking the crai as much, but then again, I might fold a low flush in villian's shoes so it can't be all bad. Hmmmm....What do you think?
2fouroffsuit posted on September 11, 2009 at 05:39 AM
I don't play nearly enough PLO to comment if it's good or bad, but I think I like it.
He can't have any really strong hands expect some weird 33xx and is probably bet-folding a weak 2pr, and might be even pure bluffing. However, I don't think that you are repping much, other than at best 2pr (prob a weak 2pr) or a really weirdly played KKxx (wouldn't you bet the turn most of the time?). But when you put in the last bet and he can't call I guess that doesn't matter as much.
Cool hands Chuck!
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