July 31, 2012
Ok, so I finished the month yesterday after I hit another ~30 buyin swing in just 12k hands. It's extremly weird how everyone seems to get there like all the time. Tbh, right now I really feel like crap, because I really believe that you shouldn't get into such swings over such a small sample. But I seem to get into these stuff like all the time. Last year at this time I was playing nl400, and I can remember that something similar to that happened to me, too. I had a really hard time to recover from it. This time I don't feel that terrible, but I do feel that it is simply not correct. I know the theory stuff and I know that it can happen, but seriously, why do I always have to be on this side of it? I know people who like never had real downswings, even so they are playing for years now. I have the right mindset I believe, but feelings and mindset oftentimes don't work the same way ;)
Overall for the challenge I have to say that I think that I am doing "ok" in order to make it a success. I am not really big behind pace in terms of VPP goal, which is like the most important one for the challenge, because >50% of the winnings will come through it. I am ~3,6k behind it, but I have like 3 weeks of holiday left and I think I am able to grind more then I did this month. So the 300k vpp goal should be able to archieve. The 13,4k I need to win through playing might become a problem, because I continue to run bad or better not so well at nl200. I really think that I need to make a decision here. The vpp are obv important, but if I keep on running at 0bb/100 at nl200 my overall winrate drops to 5bb/100 and this means that I get into sicker swings etc. Let's say I play 1/3 of my hands at nl200 wich is what I am doing at the moment. This would mean that I would play ~128k hands at nl200. Let's say I'm just a 2bb/100 winner at nl200 (which I don't really think, it should be more, but I just want to show an example), this would mean the following:
The other interesting graph is the "downswing graph" (http://www.evplusplus.com/site_media/images/variance/wr_2.00_sd_100.00_nruns_100_nhands_128000_False_df3JiS_downswings.png). It shows a value of 82,68 buyins which is like crazy to me! I don't know if it would hit me, but I can't be sure it won't. So it might be really hard, but I think that I might be better of to just grind nl100. I think my chances to hit the goal are way better then. I guess I might take shots at nl200, too, but right now it feels not "right". Sucks to be a poker player, but you have to grind "only" nl100. Maybe a give plo a shot, who knows? Right now I am just considering things and playing only nl100 right now sounds best to me. Maybe grinding next month completly nl100 and then decide what to do in September might be a good solution. If I wouldn't play nl200 for the rest of the year it would only mean that I have to play 50-60k hands at nl100 more, which obv is a lot, but over 5 months it's just 10k hands more, while having a bigger winrate and being more motivated (at least I hope it will work that way).
- day: 31/184 => 16,8/100
- hands played: 69.909/76.653 | -6.754 => 455.000
- Money won: -1.379,61/2.190,00 | -3.642,61 => 30.000
- VPP: 30.055,89/33.697 | -3.641,11 => 200.000