July 31, 2012
30k ch. - first month
Ok, so I finished the month yesterday after I hit another ~30 buyin swing in just 12k hands. It's extremly weird how everyone seems to get there like all the time. Tbh, right now I really feel like crap, because I really believe that you shouldn't get into such swings over such a small sample. But I seem to get into these stuff like all the time. Last year at this time I was playing nl400, and I can remember that something similar to that happened to me, too. I had a really hard time to recover from it. This time I don't feel that terrible, but I do feel that it is simply not correct. I know the theory stuff and I know that it can happen, but seriously, why do I always have to be on this side of it? I know people who like never had real downswings, even so they are playing for years now. I have the right mindset I believe, but feelings and mindset oftentimes don't work the same way ;)
Overall for the challenge I have to say that I think that I am doing "ok" in order to make it a success. I am not really big behind pace in terms of VPP goal, which is like the most important one for the challenge, because >50% of the winnings will come through it. I am ~3,6k behind it, but I have like 3 weeks of holiday left and I think I am able to grind more then I did this month. So the 300k vpp goal should be able to archieve. The 13,4k I need to win through playing might become a problem, because I continue to run bad or better not so well at nl200. I really think that I need to make a decision here. The vpp are obv important, but if I keep on running at 0bb/100 at nl200 my overall winrate drops to 5bb/100 and this means that I get into sicker swings etc. Let's say I play 1/3 of my hands at nl200 wich is what I am doing at the moment. This would mean that I would play ~128k hands at nl200. Let's say I'm just a 2bb/100 winner at nl200 (which I don't really think, it should be more, but I just want to show an example), this would mean the following:
The other interesting graph is the "downswing graph" (http://www.evplusplus.com/site_media/images/variance/wr_2.00_sd_100.00_nruns_100_nhands_128000_False_df3JiS_downswings.png). It shows a value of 82,68 buyins which is like crazy to me! I don't know if it would hit me, but I can't be sure it won't. So it might be really hard, but I think that I might be better of to just grind nl100. I think my chances to hit the goal are way better then. I guess I might take shots at nl200, too, but right now it feels not "right". Sucks to be a poker player, but you have to grind "only" nl100. Maybe a give plo a shot, who knows? Right now I am just considering things and playing only nl100 right now sounds best to me. Maybe grinding next month completly nl100 and then decide what to do in September might be a good solution. If I wouldn't play nl200 for the rest of the year it would only mean that I have to play 50-60k hands at nl100 more, which obv is a lot, but over 5 months it's just 10k hands more, while having a bigger winrate and being more motivated (at least I hope it will work that way).
Goal list:
- day: 31/184 => 16,8/100
- hands played: 69.909/76.653 | -6.754 => 455.000
- Money won: -1.379,61/2.190,00 | -3.642,61 => 30.000
- VPP: 30.055,89/33.697 | -3.641,11 => 200.000
1 Comments:
lawnmoe posted on July 31, 2012 at 20:47 PM
not again! Although, looking at the July results this is like a minor inconvenience (at least moneywise) when compared to the graph from last year. You made your way out of it last year, I am sure you will do it again. And just to put things into perspective, imagine how much more difficult it would have been to get that appartement of yours without the nice extra income.
Just keep working and playing hard, you will definitely run better again.
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