October 10, 2011

aiev and a interesting hand

After my last blog post I played a good amount of poker. I think the changes I did really helped me a lot, because I am more focused in my 2nd and 3rd session, which is awesome. I keep on seeing the spots in which I can steal the pot, because my opponents range is weak and I go for them. Unfortunately I have a little problem:

User Uploaded Image

 

This is nothing new to me, because this is "normal" for me. Sounds crazy, but whenever I play I am running completly sick under EV, doesn't matter if it's iPoker, FTP, Party or Stars, I am way behind my EV. Obv the All-In EV doesn't tell the complete story, but I want to go over it a little bit, because I feel a lot of people don't interpret it correct:

 

User Uploaded Image

First of all: It really doesn't matter what your EV line looks like, you can always(!) work on your game! So don't use your all-in ev as an excusion for yourself, why you don't improve.

a) All-In Ev goes up, Winnings are even/loosing

If you just look at the results of this player, you might think he is a bad reg. Even so he has leaks that he can fix, he has one problem that he can't fix. He is unlucky in All-In situations!  

b) All-In Ev is even, winnings are going down

Even so this player is as unlucky as player A, this situation is different. Player B would be just a break even player! So he really is a bad reg. He has a lot of leaks, but here is the good news for him: If he works on his game he can push his winrate. The important thing here is to recognize that he wouldn't have made any money even if he would have run close to his All-In Ev. So if you are this type of player, go work on your game, there is a future for you!

c) All-In EV goes down, winnings are going dow

This shows the graph of a loosing player. Like player A and B he is running below his expectation, but even if he would run close to it, he would loose money. His solution is the same as for player B: Work on your game! Maybe move down a limit so that you winrate would be more like the one player B has.

d) All-In EV goes up, winnings are way over EV

Congratulations!^^ I think here is one important thing that a lot of people don't realize if they talk about All-In Ev. They see a graph like this (or they are running like this) and they get afraid that someone could write: "Wow, you are just winning because of luck!" This statement wouldn't be true! We have a solid playing regular who knows how to play the game. What benefits him is that if he gets it all-in, he is more likely to win the all-in. but! Like I alreasy wrote: Even he can work on his game!

-----------------------------------------------------------

That's close to all I wanted to talk about all-in EV. If you have any questions or have any comments, feel free to share them with me :)

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1 hand, 2 mistakes

http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1475834

This might look pretty standard for my opponent, and spewy if you are in my shoes, but I don't think that's the case.

Preflop depends obv a lot of villain, but I like my play so far.

Flop: I am not really afraif of getting c/r here. If he has a hand like KQss I don't think be wants to raise/call it off on this board against me, so if he c/r he gets really polarized, and I think on this flop he is more likely to just call me with a set. Might sound strange, but I think he wants me to catch a hand. I mean, if I have QQ, he c/r bets turn shoves river, I am not happy with my hand.

Turn: The 4 is a relativ blank and my range gets more into OPs and FDs. I am not betting a hand like A6cc here anymore. So my A5 is the only hand I am 2nd barreling here, which has at least some outs (Ax might be good, 6/2 give me a straight).

River: here is the mistake that I make! If I have AA on the river and I do expect him to call me with a hand like TT, he isn't folding often enough for me to have a profitable bluff. So my mistake is to bet the river, because I don't see him folding.

Now you might ask: Well, what did he wrong? I believe this is pretty easy to see. I think the odds on the river are way to bad for him to call me. If I am value shoving QQ+/4x/flushes, he can't beat one single hand! Think about it this way: What hands can I really be bluffing with? There aren't really a lot of hands, and like the only hand that comes into my mind is A5s. So by calling he wins 3 times and looses >20 times (obv he might loose to >30 combos, depends on my real range which I am not giving away here). I think that's a common mistake you see a lot at nl100/200. People actually call because "I have an overpair", but they do forget to think about a range. The fun part about it is, that even I did not think correct about his range, because if I would have done that, I wouldn't have shoved the river. Thought that was a funny hand.

Posted By CivSTAR at 03:55 PM

105 Comments

105 Comments:

duffte posted on October 11, 2011 at 00:13 AM

Untitled-1.gif

your graph is not example a) btw, it is a) and b) and c) and even d)

the first few hands you lost during loosing, thats b) 5 stacks burned propably,

until 25k nothing happening really
then it looks like a streak of variance, like your foldequity wasnt as good as you thought, or villains might have been calling more lightly, or just had it

.. and the last few hands look like the first few hands, getting it in bad with a piece of equity?

i dont want to pick on you or something, it's my time writing this.. id like to work it out!

gl! <3


CivSTAR posted on October 11, 2011 at 08:43 AM

Bvb

my graph is clearly a): "All-In Ev goes up, Winnings are even/loosing"

You can't take pieces out of the graph and say "this one is this, that one is that", that's not how it works ;) But I go over it:

----------

"the first few hands you lost during loosing, thats b) 5 stacks burned propably"

new site, played way to optimistic, clearly loosing plays against my opponents

---------

"until 25k nothing happening really"

This is close to example a) again. AIEV goes up, but this time my winnings go up, too. There are obv more then just the 4 AIEV situations I described, just wanted to keep it simple with my examples.

------------

"then it looks like a streak of variance, like your foldequity wasnt as good as you thought, or villains might have been calling more lightly, or just had it"

Those situations appear if you and your opponent have top range. The thing is, that I had the drawing part of it (like getting it in with T9ss on 873ss). But even here it is important to look, if your general play was +ev. If you would do -ev plays all the time your AIEV can't go up! This would be like c).

The "your foldequity wasnt as good as you thought" isn't correct. If this would be the case your AIEV would not go up. If you get it in with let's say 30% and you loose, you are running below EV. But(!) your AIEV line would go down! Look at this picture:

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/1600/aievc.jpg

1) Describes a situation in which you got it in with a small edge

2) Describes a situation in which you got it in with <50% equity (which doesn't necessarily mean that your play wasn't +ev)

So as you can see there is a big difference between these 2 situations.

The next point "or villains might have been calling more lightly" is true, but I think you might have meant it the wrong way. The real way to look at it is, that they don't really need to "call" more lightly, they just got it in vs you more lightly. Let's say you have a situation in which you have KK and you 4b it pre. Villain now decides to shove after his 3b with AQ. His play doesn't need to be bad overall, but he got it in light here. If I then loose with my KK to his AQ you have a picture which looks close to situation 1).

The last point "or just had it" isn't true. If they just had it all the time and I got it in way to light or close to drawing dead the graph would look like my first ~5k hands. If I get it in bad my AIEV line(!) isn't going up, even so I run below EV. So it is not the case that I was stacking off preflop with let's say AJ vs a Villain who was opening UTG.

-----------

"and the last few hands look like the first few hands, getting it in bad with a piece of equity?"

This isn't the way you are meaning it. Let's say you play a 3b pot, you turn your straight, and villain keeps on calling with his range. River makes a flush possible, but he can call you with worse hands, so you shove with your straight. He snaps and shows you the flush. Your AIEV goes down, even so your play was +ev.

Those are situations in which you have to look for graph a) and c). If your general AIEV line goes up, it is more likely that you just got it in vs someone else how had the best hand "this time". If you are like player C it is more likely that you made a bad play, because this happens "all the time".

The last few k hands are just the result of running bad. If you get it in all the time with QQ/AK to AA/KK in real standard situations and you keep on losing to AQ if you have KK etc etc

-----------

I think you looked over the graph exactly how most people would do it, because they haven't worked it out (in no offense way, I think if you are running close to AIEV or even above it, you don't really care about it, and tbh, if I would run close to AIEV or above it, I think I wouldn't care about it, too, because there would be no need to even think about it).


Squishee posted on November 15, 2011 at 23:38 PM

Nordique

Well, I was thinking about the same of each graph so we are on the same page

It just took me a while to figure out the $EV in HEM and how it was working

Altought, I still think it cant take all factor into considerations. (ex. massive +EV vs a dude in a situation and it happen u get totally pwnd in this specific spot)


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