August 24, 2012

SNE plans

I'd like to share my plan so far on how to archieve SNE. Would be cool if someone these something that he thinks I would be doing wrong or if it could be done better. Some stuff might be a little bit randomly put in a category, but I hope that it still makes sense.

Limits

If I get to finish my challenge I should be able to play up to nl400. So I would play a mix of nl100-nl400sh. Adding FR could be a solution, too, but I think I should try to concentrate on only one game, because I already play 24 tables and having to look on different layouts shouldn't really work out or better it could work out, but at the moment I don't feel the need to do so.

Having nl200+nl400 in there is very important in order to archieve the goal of an average daily vpp. Like on 2p2 the sne pursuit thread, they always tell you where the pace is at the moment, and I believe that I want to be above that all the time. But, I should calculate it that I would be able to do it by just playing nl100.

Time managment

I think the best for me is to play 2 sessions a day. Each session will last for 3 hours. That's a lot of time at the tables close to every day. I'm going to play 6 out of 7 days, while one day I will be completly away from poker. Not reading/posting in any forum, not watching any vids or doing any theory. I think this is really important, because you really want to have one day of. The problem is that I have a job. So I can only take my day of at the weekend. Because I know that I will watch every game of Borussia Dortmund, I will always not play on the day on which they play (unless they play on a Friday, which I doubt will happen most of the time because of the Champions League).

The second important thing is to think about how much time I really need between the sessions. Right now I work with 2 hours, which might sound a little bit to long, but so far I'm ok with it. 2 hours mean that I can really do something different. I can do some sports, watch TV, clean my appartment, go to the supermarket, etc. But I think that I have to make a good plan for this, too, because the free time I have I really have to spent on useful things.

Sports/nutrition

I think if you really want to go through such a tough time, you have to really fix these things. Doing some sports and take care that you really eat healthy. That's at the moment a real problem for me, because I am really lazy at both. I plan on starting yoga (a lot of people have recommended it to me), because it should help in a lot of spots which are important to a poker player. The nutrition thing should be easy to fix, too, I just have to cook a little bit more. Driving to McD or ordering some pizza is obv more easy, but on the other hand it costs you a lot of money. I haven't really figuered this out yet completly, but I really believe that this is really important, so I will spent a lot of time to get this fixed.

Game schedule

I wrote that I would like to play nl100-nl400. So the vpp at the various stakes are for me atm:

  • nl100: 0,38vpp/hand
  • nl200: 0,55vpp/hand
  • nl400: 0,77vpp/hand

I think those numbers might drop a little bit, because I might play a tighter style. Nothing big, but maybe just 0,34vpp/hand at nl100 and so on. In order to make SNE I need to be able to do it completly at nl100. So: 1.000.000 / 0,34 ~= 2.940.000 hands

I plan on playing 6 out of 7 days, so over the year I would be playing 365 / 7 * 6 ~= 313 days.

This means I would have to play 2.940.000 / 313 ~= 9.400 hands a day.

Taking it one step further: 9.400 / 6 ~= 1.567 hands/hour.

In order to have some buffer, I believe that I should aim for 1.100.000vpp. So putting everything together: 1.100.000 / 0,34 / 313 ~= 10.400 hands/day.

That's the realy crazy part about it. But, I think I am able to do it while playing 6 hours a day.

I hope I'll be able to play a mix of nl100-nl400. Maybe like 1/8 nl400, 2/8 nl200 and 5/8 nl100. Would mean 0,75 * 1/8 + 0,50 * 2/8 + 0,34 * 5/8 = 0,094 + 0,125 + 0,2125 = 0,4315 vpp/hand. Those are 27% more then if I would only play nl100!! Or in other words: ~686.000 I would need to play less! So I really hope that this will work out, might make a big difference if you have to grind a complete year. 

The most interesting part: The reward!^^

I hope Pokerstars won't do a lot of changes (well, maybe adding some more money to the rewards would be cool^^). I get money from VIP Stellar, Milestone-VPP and from bonus. Numbers are calculated on 1.100.00 vpp and starting as Sup

So overall I would earn 108.400$ from just playing. I'm playing on 313 days and 6 hrs/d so ~1.878 hrs overall. So I would be at 57,72$/hour.

But let's take 2 other possibilities: I make a) 2bb/100 and b) 4bb/100. What would that mean?

  • a) 2bb/100 over ~3.236.000 hands: 64.720$ + 108.400$ = 173.120$ / 1.878 = 92,18$
  • b) 4bb/100 over ~3.236.000 hands: 129.440$ + 108.400$ = 237.840$ / 1.878 = 126,65$

Those numbers are for nl100 only. If I would be able to play nl200+nl400, too, the volumne gets much lower.

Other points

One thing I believe some people might not think about is that if you are going for SNE, you are not only on a 1 year challenge. Imo the fpp multiplier is very important. If you are SNE you get 5fpp/vpp while on SN you only get 3,5fpp/vpp. If you just look in the bonus section above, this would make a difference of 24.000$ or 12,78$/hr! So you should really think about what you want to do after your first SNE. If you finished it one time and you plan on finishing a 2nd time, the third year is a year where you still should play to earn at least the 50k vpp/month needed.

I think it is important to have a schedule that works for the complete year. If you want to take maybe a few days off to travel around or whatever you want to do, you have to calculate those days in before you start! You don't need to know when you will take same, just know that you will take them. Taking a week off and then saying to yourself "alright, the next 40 days I play one hour longer every day" won't work out. Because after that time you might need another break and suddenly you have lost the ability to finish SNE. I am not completly sure, but I think what can and should work is to grind a little bit more in the beginning in order to allow you to take a few days off if you really need them. So I am thinking to play at the beginning 2 sessions of 4hours over 20 days so that I can take a week off if I really need it. If I don't need it that would be ok, too, because I get to SNE more faster and I can earn some more fpp over the year.

So yeah, those are my ideas so far. It's not really perfect as you can see, but I think I'm on a good way now.

Posted By CivSTAR at 12:22 PM

13 Comments

August 20, 2012

30k ch. - 2nd bonus clear

I just cleared the 2nd 1.600$ bonus which turns my "money won" into the + region. Overall I just got into another 30 buyin downswing, but I think I handled it pretty well. I changed my session routine a little bit and I choosed to play more tables. Most of the time I am now 24tabling, and so far I'm happy with the results. Might sound weird if you just went through another 30 buyin downswing, but I have played enough hands to know when I am running bad or when I am playing bad.

I didn't update for a few weeks now, because there wasn't really anything I could have told you. Had a lot of stuff going on in my real job, I got ill aso, and it all took me away from the tables. Now I am back and I'm going to grind. Well, to keep it realistic: I want to play 24 hours/week atm, and then I'll try to play more hours per week til I have reached 40. You might guess why I am doing this ;) SNE! I gave up on believing that I might one day be able to play nl1k+ on a regular basis. Maybe it will happen, but I think that it is a goal which is unrealistic. So I think it is important to maximize your hourly as much as you can, and by archiving SNE I think this would work best for me. I have 4,5 months left in order to get there, and it will be a lot of work to really get there. But I think I have a realistic shot on it. One key would be to finish my challenge and to even top it by archieving 400k instead of 300k. Atm I make ~2,6-2,9k/day, and if I only play 5/7 days I should be able to get there.

But, I start easy. 4hrs/day atm are enough. I have to change some of my daily routines and get into doing sports, eating better etc etc. The typical stuff we all tell ourself "yeah, let's do it" but after 3-4 weeks we are back in our typical routine. So I'm going to change things slowly. One thing I started is to drink more water, instead of coke. Normally I dring like one liter of it per day, but I think I already lowered it to "only" 0,2-0,4. Nothing really to brag about, but I think the small changes make the difference in the bigger picture.

Goal list:

  • day: 50/184 => 27,2/100
  • hands played: 122.198/139.450 | -17.252 => 455.000
  • Money won: 1.886,76/3.650,00 | -1.763,24 => 30.000
  • VPP: 48618,42/54.350 | -5.731,58 => 200.000

Challenge Graph:

User Uploaded Image

Posted By CivSTAR at 03:46 PM

59 Comments

July 31, 2012

30k ch. - first month

Ok, so I finished the month yesterday after I hit another ~30 buyin swing in just 12k hands. It's extremly weird how everyone seems to get there like all the time. Tbh, right now I really feel like crap, because I really believe that you shouldn't get into such swings over such a small sample. But I seem to get into these stuff like all the time. Last year at this time I was playing nl400, and I can remember that something similar to that happened to me, too. I had a really hard time to recover from it. This time I don't feel that terrible, but I do feel that it is simply not correct. I know the theory stuff and I know that it can happen, but seriously, why do I always have to be on this side of it? I know people who like never had real downswings, even so they are playing for years now. I have the right mindset I believe, but feelings and mindset oftentimes don't work the same way ;)

Overall for the challenge I have to say that I think that I am doing "ok" in order to make it a success. I am not really big behind pace in terms of VPP goal, which is like the most important one for the challenge, because >50% of the winnings will come through it. I am ~3,6k behind it, but I have like 3 weeks of holiday left and I think I am able to grind more then I did this month. So the 300k vpp goal should be able to archieve. The 13,4k I need to win through playing might become a problem, because I continue to run bad or better not so well at nl200. I really think that I need to make a decision here. The vpp are obv important, but if I keep on running at 0bb/100 at nl200 my overall winrate drops to 5bb/100 and this means that I get into sicker swings etc.  Let's say I play 1/3 of my hands at nl200 wich is what I am doing at the moment. This would mean that I would play ~128k hands at nl200. Let's say I'm just a 2bb/100 winner at nl200 (which I don't really think, it should be more, but I just want to show an example), this would mean the following:

User Uploaded Image

http://www.evplusplus.com/site_media/images/variance/wr_2.00_sd_100.00_nruns_100_nhands_128000_False_df3JiS.png

The other interesting graph is the "downswing graph" (http://www.evplusplus.com/site_media/images/variance/wr_2.00_sd_100.00_nruns_100_nhands_128000_False_df3JiS_downswings.png). It shows a value of 82,68 buyins which is like crazy to me! I don't know if it would hit me, but I can't be sure it won't. So it might be really hard, but I think that I might be better of to just grind nl100. I think my chances to hit the goal are way better then. I guess I might take shots at nl200, too, but right now it feels not "right". Sucks to be a poker player, but you have to grind "only" nl100. Maybe a give plo a shot, who knows? Right now I am just considering things and playing only nl100 right now sounds best to me. Maybe grinding next month completly nl100 and then decide what to do in September might be a good solution. If I wouldn't play nl200 for the rest of the year it would only mean that I have to play 50-60k hands at nl100 more, which obv is a lot, but over 5 months it's just 10k hands more, while having a bigger winrate and being more motivated (at least I hope it will work that way).

Goal list:

  • day: 31/184 => 16,8/100
  • hands played: 69.909/76.653 | -6.754 => 455.000
  • Money won: -1.379,61/2.190,00 | -3.642,61 => 30.000
  • VPP: 30.055,89/33.697 | -3.641,11 => 200.000
  • Challenge graph:
  • User Uploaded Image
  • Posted By CivSTAR at 05:15 PM

    6 Comments

    July 27, 2012

    30k ch. - lockdown!

    Ok, I'm not a 100% sure if I'm going to do it, but I really want to give it a try. Til 31st July I need to play ~35k hands in order to be in pace again. So this would basiclly mean ~7k hands/day. I'm planning on playing 10 sessions, 3hrs each, so I should make it to ~30-36k hands in that time. That said, I will continue using a stoploss of 6 buyins. If I reach it for the day after let's say 400 hands, I will stop playing and do something else. I hope this won't happen so that I at least have a chance of getting there.

    Plan is to play from 5.30pm-8.30pm then do some random stuff (cleaning, watching a movie, etc) and then play the 2nd session from 10.30pm-1.30am. I have coaching on Monday so I might only get to play one session there. But still, I would be really happy to get to play ~24k hands, which would be a cool result for me.

    So next blog will be on 1st August. I might go into some detail about some hands I played in which I think my opponent or myself made a mistake. Should be interesting, at least I hope so^^

    And finally I'd like to share a vid about the best football team out there :) Have fun!

     

     

    Posted By CivSTAR at 01:54 PM

    6 Comments

    July 23, 2012

    30k ch. - 3rd week

    I got to play more hands then I thought I would be able to play, but overall it gets a little bit into the direction "frustration". ~800 hands/day I am below my plan right now which adds up every week. I always try to get myself to play, but then I am sitting at home, being tired, and I just can't get up to play. It's somewhat funny, because I am really just sitting around, I am doing nothing. If I would play like Diablo3 or another game, or watch some movies, do theory stuff, but no, I am just sitting there being tired :/ I have no real clue how to get out of this right now, but it will be important if I want to reach my goals.

    Even in other spots most didn't really go my way. For my study group we invited 2 new players ~2,5 weeks ago. We told them what we were planing and that this would mean a lot of work. Unfortunately both agreed in doing their best, but for whatever reason both didn't really "start". I dunno if others have experience with pokergroups, but in general the time after getting together is the time in which most stuff is done, and after that it gets slower and slower. Once you realize that it can't get really slower, it is the best to go different ways. I mean, this has really nothing to do with skill. It's always a giving and taking, but some have a problem with the giving part. Really disappointed about it, but a lot of skilled players have a problem with working theory stuff out. It is like they are waiting to just see the stuff and then implement it into their own game.  

    Anyways, the challenge so far isn't obv going the way I would like it to be. It's always horrible if something like this starts with a downswing so that you basiclly have to make 35k instead of 30k. I added nl200 again and I think it was a good decision. Feels way better to earn more VPPs in a normal session. I got close to even for the month, but right now it's going down a little bit again, but I think that this is just normal variance and it will turn around the next days. Was somewhat boring to flop the nuts and then bet bet bet/fold like all the time.. But yeah, nothing I can do about it. I am close to get my first bonus of 1.600$, should take me like ~5k hands to have it finished (got some old FPPs). This will help to get the month even and if I keep on running at least normal I should be able to finish the month with like a ~2k win, at least I think that this should be an archievable goal. If I get to be even that's ok, even so it isn't obv what I would have wished for.

    Overall I think I need to get into the right mood again to be able to play more then just 5 sessions a week. I think I should be able to get at least 8 sessions in (1 session = 3hrs). Trying to figure out how to do it. If you have a good soluton pls write a comment :)

    Goal list:

    • day: 22/184 => 12/100
    • hands played: 43.704/61.050 | -17.346 => 455.000
    • Money won: -1.784,60/1.804,00 | -3.588,60 => 30.000
    • VPP: 18.499,30/26.840 | -8.340,70 => 200.000
  • Challenge graph:
  • User Uploaded Image

     

  • Posted By CivSTAR at 12:38 PM

    1 Comments

    July 15, 2012

    30k ch. - 2nd week results

    I finished the 2nd week and I am really happy with the results. The downswing did end, at least I hope it did^^, and I got to play in a better mood again. I am thinking about adding nl200 again, but I am not completly sure about it yet. I could do it in terms of BRM, but if I would continue to run bad at nl200 it wouldn't be helpful, even so I really need to get volumne at nl200 in, because of my VPP goal. I get like 20-25% more vpp/hand which is obv a lot.

    My problem atm is to get enough volumne in. I added zoom to play more hands, but I am not really in love with it so far. Feels weird to play 4 tables of zoom and 12 normal tables. It is doable, but I prefer playing 16 normal tables. Maybe by adding nl200 like I already mentioned, I can get to my normal volumne. I'll think about it. Waiting til I am "even" for the month would be a little bit to long.  

    The next week will be pretty tough, because I have to work a lot. So I will get even more behind pace. Not really happy with it, but there's nothing I can really do about it. I guess I'll do some more theory stuff, because I feel like it is better to do this if you aren't in a good enough mood (being tired etc).

    • day: 15/184 => 8,15/100
    • hands played: 27.764/41.625 | -13.861 => 455.000
    • Money won: -2.214,64/1.230,00 | -3.444,64 => 30.000
    • VPP: 11.451,96/18.300 | --6.848,04 => 200.000
  • Challenge graph:
  • User Uploaded Image

    Posted By CivSTAR at 06:57 PM

    9 Comments

    July 07, 2012

    30k ch. - good start

    User Uploaded Image

    I have a lot of experience with bad swings etc, but something like this has never happened to me before in such a short period of time. It is really weird, because even so people seem to start to make really horrible calls against my range, they only do it if I really have a bluff. It's really like they can see my cards. Obv I know that they can't, but the last~13k hands were like it. I could post some bad beat hand historys, but I feel like I already cried enough.

    It's a pretty sick start to begin a challenge like this with. I am also a little bit afraid that I have to quit playing nl200 right now, because I basiclly have no idea when the downswing will end. In general most of the time it takes me ~20-30k hands to go through such a period, but losing another ~4k isn't really an option at the moment. Pretty funny it all started when I cashed out something from Pokerstars, because I don't like to have to much money on my pokeraccount. Typical example of a doomswitch if you ask me ;)

    I wanted to grind a lot this weekend, because I already had 3 days this month on which I didn't play. I figuered that the schedule I wanted to use in the last blog entry wasn't that effective. I created a new one which now describes everything as an average. I used the numbers I got from playing this year so far, which were 0.39vpp/h @nl100 and 0.54bpp/h @nl200. I average like 66% at nl100 and 33% at nl200, which means ~0.44vpp/hand. In order to get to 200k vpp I would have to play ~455.000 hands. From 1st July I have 184 days to finish the challenge. In order to have some free room I took out 20 days so that I would have to complete it in 164 days. This means I would have to average 2.775 hands/day. So right now I am behind pace, which was obv if you take 3 days off, but I think it's doable, because in general I play more like 3-4k hands if I play a session. If I don't finish it in 164 days, I obv have the 20 days available, but I think it's better to have a buffer (right word? google translator told me to use it^^).

    The next days I'll only play nl100 which will hurt my vpp/hand, but I think it is more important for me right now to come back into a good grinding mode.

    • day: 7/184 => 3,8/100
    • hands played: 10.486/19.425 | -8.540 => 455.000
    • Money won: -4.700,60/574 | -5.274,60 => 30.000
    • VPP: 4.910,73/8.540 | -3.629,27 => 200.000
    Challenge graph:

     

    User Uploaded Image

     

    Posted By CivSTAR at 04:09 PM

    316 Comments

    July 02, 2012

    30k ch. - let's begin

    First of:

    http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/28-Secret-HQ/topics/530221-german-nl100-grp

    Still looking for members for our study group. If you are interested just read over the thread and pm me!

    ----------------------------

    Right now I am thinking about how to manage my playing time etc best. I sometimes have a hard time motivating myself, but I think I came up with a solution that should work for me. My "mustplay" time is 3 hrs/day, while I have to play at least 5 days a weak. I am allowed to play more then 3hrs/day. Every month I have 8 days which I can use for not playing. So for this month it would mean that I have to play 3hrs/day at 31-8=23days, which would mean that I have to play 69hrs. Of course, if I'm getting ill etc I have to change it (was ill last week, but I hope I fully recovered from it). The extra time I'd like to put in on the weekend, because I like to play ~16 tables at once which is obv more easy to do if you have more possible tables to play. Obv I might change it completly if I might realize that it isn't working. One possible solution would be that if I have reached the 69 hours, I can take free for the rest of the month or something similar to it.

    • Free days: 1/8
    • Hours played: 0/69
    • Money won: 0/30.000
    • VPP: 0/200.000

    To keep the blog interesting just tell me what you would like to read about. I'd like to do a lot of updates during the challenge, but in order to keep it interesting it is sometimes more easy for me if I know what you would like to read about, so just tell me.

    Posted By CivSTAR at 01:12 PM

    10 Comments

    June 27, 2012

    Study Grp - New member

    http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/28-Secret-HQ/topics/530221-german-nl100-grp

    Posted By CivSTAR at 06:40 PM

    124 Comments

    June 21, 2012

    $30.000 challenge

    I am challenging myself to earn $30.000 from playing + rakeback (boni) from now on til the end of the year.

    What's my starting point right now?

    I just finished to be Supernova at Stars a few days ago. So from now on I get 3,5fpp/1vpp. My roll is big enough to play nl100+200 and to take shots at nl400. Right now I'll keep at nl100+200, but I'm sure that I might take some shots in a couple of weeks.

    So, what does the plan look like?

    I'll try to get to 300.000 vpp this year. This would mean:

    Milestone: 200.000 + 300.000 = $2.600 + $2.800 = $5.400

    Boni: 200.000vpp * 3,5fpp/vpp = 700.000fpp => 7 * $1.600 = $11.200

    Just from rakeback I'll earn ~$16.600. This would mean that I have to earn $13.400 from playing. Per month it would be ~2.234, and I think this is archievable for me. The biggest problem for me is to put in enough volumne. But it is a challenge, and I'll take it. I'll update every once in a while, but I'll do always a monthly review. Let's start!

    Posted By CivSTAR at 02:24 PM

    6 Comments


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