September 24, 2010

Everyone is laughing, and riding, and cornballing.

Being a catcher that was solid defensively but couldn't hit, I love the watching catchers that do both well. Buster Posey is one who fits that mold. His swing is unreal and he's fun to watch. I've been watching a lot of Giants games this yeah and they're actually my pick to win the NL. I know the Phillies are the trendy pick but I actually like San Fran's pitching a little better. It'd be a fun NLCS to watch.

Since advanced stats have become more common place in baseball there's generally always a debate on the Cy Young. There's usually a traditional favorite in which votes looks at wins, innings, strikeouts. Then there's the advanced stats people who tend to look at things like K:BB, WAR, FIP, etc. The stupidest argument from the traditionalists is "Well pitcher x doesn't have enough wins." Guess what, a pitcher can't control how well his teammates hit.

That's the very debate that's going to happen for the AL Cy Young this year. Most traditional votes are going to vote for Sabathia since he's had a solid year and leads the league in wins. Meanwhile Felix Hernandez has been the best pitcher in the AL this year yet is only 12-12. His team, the Seattle Mariners have the worst offense in the AL. He hasn't won a game in which he's allowed more than 2 earned runs this year. Sabathia has won 7 of those games. Not to mention Hernandez has been a horse and leads the league in innings. So yeah, I'm excited to see who the voters pick. Besides, if Hernandez doesn't win it, Jon Lester's been the second best pitcher in the AL this year.

Speaking of baseball traditionalists, watching a lot of NL West games lately because of the pennant race going on there's been a lot of talk about the Diamondbacks and their strikeouts. Every announcer and analyst basically says "They strikeout way too much to have a successful offense." Well just simply breaking it down by OPS and runs scored, they rank 11/30 in OPS and 16/30 in runs. So while their offense isn't great, it's not terrible. Also, the team with the least amount of strikeouts in baseball, the Royals and Astros have worse offenses.

Watching the MLB Network the other day John Hart and Harold Reynolds were saying you need guys like Jeff Keppinger, Placido Polanco, and David Eckstein in your line-up. Neither of those hitters strike out. Well, no you don't. Flailing at the ball and hitting a 2 hopper to short is just the same as swinging through a fastball for strike three. But what about productive outs!!! I'm so sick of hearing this argument, while productive outs can be somewhat successful they are so overrated because you're making an out while doing it. They lead to one run innings instead of big innings.

Furthermore just to show how much baseall traditionalists suck, here are the runner on third with <2 outs stats for Polanco, Keppinger, Eckstein, Adam Dunn, and Mark Reyonolds. The latter two strikeout a ton. The analysts were making a huge deal of this even showing video of guys giving themselves up.



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So yeah, as usual they have very little idea of what they're talking about. The bottom line is it's very easy to hit in these situations and while strikeouts suck in these spots they don't happen nearly enough. Harold Reynolds John Hart, etc were saying that while you don't need a team full of Eckstein's, you should always have at least one. Well if I have 8 Adam Dunn's on my team and have the choice between Dunn and Eckstein as my 9th, give me Adam Dunn every time because as I've stated before and is well known among the "stat geeks" a strikeout is just another out. Also, as a bonus you can't ground into a double play when you strike out.

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"Be able to analyze statistics, which can be used to support or undercut almost any argument."
Marilyn vos Savant


 


 

Posted By bosoxx34 at 11:02 PM

7 Comments

7 Comments:

DiggerTheDog posted on September 25, 2010 at 02:25 AM

Chuck

American sports fans are really stat fanatics amirite?


bosoxx34 posted on September 25, 2010 at 05:24 AM

Boston-red-sox-logo

It depends, baseball is the most stat based out of the American sports.


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