March 19, 2013
Well lately things haven’t been going too well, I haven’t played that many games and I suspect this is due to a mental leak, a tilt in reducing my play when bad luck strikes.
Anyway never mind about that I have spotted an interesting effect in the AllinEv graphs that I didn’t realize would be there. I admit it is still early days and I might be seeing some random effect as a pattern in limited data but I’ll show you what I mean.
Ok I’ve been plotting my AllinEV vs Normal for lots of 180 seat tournies for a bit of fun really. I have plotted two lots.
(i) Just the hands involved in allins – by filtering for allin by the turn or earlier. (Well there will still be a few a few hands with no calc done as other players might not be allin by then)
(ii) The complete set of hands so in this many are not effected by an allin adjusted calculation.
Here is the latest version of (ii) for 180s only for this year.
This is the graph that behaves in a inverted saw tooth form, it is quite easy to image that this shape is being caused by the nature of the tournament game, it is only when you come first that you get to keep all the chips.
Below is the graph of only the hands that can have a sensible allin adjustment calculated.
An odd thing I have noticed in this is that a remnant of the inverted saw-tooth shape seems to still be visible in these hands. Initially I expected the green and the red lines would simply bounce around the common mean and not exhibit this tooth shape, I hadn't really thought much about it.
It is only a small sample really and I am not certain that these ‘teeth’ I’m seeing are not tricks played by randomness but it seems connected to the question ‘Why Do I Feel So Unlucky?’
From the look of it if you play the bigger field games you will typically get long stretches of poor allinEv followed by relatively sudden jumps back up. So playing these you have to get used to this effect. The bigger the tournies you play the bigger stretch of bad allinEV you should expect, any early luck you get in a game tends to be overshadowed by a later hand - you have many chances to get unlucky before the end of each tournie.
I, and most others, probably feel the pain of the long stretch totally out of proportion to the joy of the sudden burst of good run-good and overall you feel on a bit of a downer.
This may not be true at all but it’s my current theory and I think I might try to train myself to expect this effect and perhaps it will help with my low volume tilt.
One thing I forgot to add that may be of interest to someone is the difference in variance in the green and red graphs above. It is easy to see that both do seem to be heading in roughly the same direction, I suspect if I plotted it for several years of data (the above is just this years so far) both green and red would end up relatively close to each other.
For the first graph, 'All tournie Hands', the sample variance of the green is 3.4 times larger than the red.
For the second graph, 'Allin Turn or Earlier', the sample variance of the green is 5.9 times as large as the red.