Back To The Trap House

As I was getting dressed in my gym watching part of the steelers broncos game I overheard a guy say "huh, that's a surprise" when the broncos went into 1/2 time up.

But this wasn't a surprise and it happens every year in sports. Why? Well hind site is 20/20 and were being results oriented but here are the points I've been arguing up to the game. I even called a guy from a local game I play and told him I'd take his $1000 bet with the spread at 9. He was so sure as we played poker but sheepishly said he had to do more research. The bet never materialized and I'm not angry I missed an opportunity. Why?

Well I'm more stoked that I broke the matchup down correctly. Well sort of. I broke the matchup down correctly given the results but it wasn't perfect. It wasn't a gut feeling I had just a few things leading up to the game, and what I observed during the season that led me to believe the broncos would pull this one out in a low scoring affair..

Here was my reasoning which turned out right but was it for the wrong reasons? I had betonsports.com open and even had my credit card out of my wallet...

1. Steelers vaunted #1 defense and Dick Lebeau the defensive mastermind- well lets not forget the steelers have been out physicalled a few times a season. They got crushed by the Jekyll and Hyde ravens and pummeled by the one dimensional 49ers with no QB. The steelers defense also had trouble creating turnovers or getting sacks. Tebow does a great job throwing the ball away and not turning the ball over. The bills game you say? That was a diff scenario where Tebow was forced to throw the ball down the field in less then optimal conditions. They were playing from behind and had to basically abandon the spread option and forced the offense into one dimension. It's easy to get turnovers hen the other teams desperate and you know where he's looking to get the ball...

2. Injury- lets start with Ryan Clark an underrated field general. I kept hearing that polamalu will pick up the slack. Not so fast. Polamalu Clark relationship creates this illusion of speed. Clark calls the audibles so polamalu can fly around and take people's heads off. Polamalus fast but when you've got an extra set of eyes then you become freakishly fast.

Pouncy-the o line is one of the more underrated positions because you can't add stats to it. With no stats it takes the casual fantasy football fn out of the mix. The majority of people make their analysis through a fantasy football mindset, not a couches. You've just gone from having a center who has snapped you 1000+ balls to a backup who's snapped you a fraction of that. The feels going to be off just a little and it played out that way...I know I know we saw the game but bear with me. This was my thinking the whole way. This isn't to toot my own horn but will eventually lead into another blog post exploring a phenomenon not talked about enough....

Rashard mendenhall- this didn't prove to be that big of an issue but due to the "madden effect" people underestimate the importance of a feature back. Part of the reason they're dying out is because 1. They're injury prone 2. They have a short shelf life 3. Not every back can stay in there all three downs. You know why? Because most of them have trouble picking up their blocks. Mendemhall, while he didn't satisfy you fantasy fans this year, can probably pick up blocks and read blitzes better than issac red man. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think big Ben got pummeled...

Big Ben- Never mind his rape charges that never materialized. He's a cool player to watch I action. He's bigger then most TE's and is mobile as fuck! His band of street ball is one of my favorite things to watch. Yeah I know he's a big dumb ogre but the guy can play. The biggest part of his game is his mobility and improvisation.  The amount of time he holds on to the ball is criminal. He takes a ton of hits and is tough as nails. He was playing with a high ankle sprain which is one hell of an injury to play on. His mobility was limited and while he made a heroic effort towards the end he ultimately fell short.

You had had 4 key injuries on a 12-4 team and for some reason people still thought the broncos would get crushed. Now how did it play out?

Dick Lebeau, defensive innovator, played in a 0 personal ( correct me if I'm wrong about 0 personal) which means he had a safety play down to take away tebows running lanes and dared the man to beat them through the air. Tebow did just that.

Now I couldnt  have ever envisioned the game play out like it did so I'm not taking any credit for that but wow. How many more times can I doubt this Tebow guy? I'm not religious but there is something we can learn. No. It's not faith in god. It's faith in something. It's faith in yourself. It's faith in your preparation. So far my faith in my preparation away from the poker tables is slowly manifesting itself.

Now the hard part. I'm going to try and break down the broncos patriots game. Let's see if I turn into Mel kiper jr jr or have to go back to the lab. Also stay tuned for this strange phenomenon we all are aware of on poker forums called hero worship. It plays out in all areas of life especially so in sports. This hero worship can mentally block you from being able to make correct decisions if you bet sports or play fantasy football. I want to know how to overcome this hero worship and eventually use it as an edge 

please excuse my typos. I was typing fom my iPad at the gym....