June 28, 2010
- Sets, Straights, Flushes and Big Draws
- Your main goal should be to make DOMINATING VERSIONS of these hands
- Sliding scale of relative hand strength (based on SPR, # of opponents, aggression of villains)
- Small stakes PLO you can make profit by playing tight and just nut peddling
- It isn't true that someone always has the nuts, but the nuts is always relevant
- The nuts has a key role in defining ranges in aggressive shorthanded games
- Board texture example Js Tc 9s in NLHE vs PLO
- Two related equity concepts
- Equity vs the nuts
- Width of the range of "pseudo-nuts" hands
Hand Values Run Closer Together
- Pre-flop. the Best AA hands have ~70% equity vs a random hand (AA has 85% in NLHE), and nearly every pre-flop hand is 55/45 or similar
- Post-flop, although there are individual dominating scenarios (set over set), most key matchups are in the 60/40 range or closer
- A main consequence is that although finding equity edges is important, playablity is more important, particularly in deeper-stacked situations
- It is a mistake to put yourself in a position where your opponent can make you fold out your equity on a later street
The Most Important fact about a starting hand is the distribution of equities that it flops
- Any pre-flop play must be judged on the post-flop scenarios it creates, and most starting hands have a particular subset of post-flop scenarios to which they are well-suited.
- Equity distributions
- Ks Kd 7h 2c (polarized equity distribution- either flops HUGE 10% of the time, or very marginal 90% time, low postflop playablity, best multiway, trying to set over set people)
- Qs Js Td 9d (smooth equity distribution - plays very well on many boards and easy to tell where you are in the hand at all times, even better deeper)
- Jh Th 9d 6s / 8s 8d 7s 6d / 8d 7c 6s 5 h / Ac Kc Js 9h (middle equity distribution - hit alot of flops, but never hits many flops super hard)
- the main differences in these hands are the "flop percentiles" of how strong they hit boards, how often and how playable they are.
- NLHE comparison AKo (strong hand but not often ) v 55 (polarized distribution, hits hard or misses) v 9h 8h (weaker 1 pair hands, but strong monsters and big draws)
- Redraws, blockers, pairs, weak and backdoor draws all add up
- Taking down the pot earlier when villain has backdoor draws gives you advantage
- in a game full of 55/45s, a lot of profit comes from consistently being on the 55% end, and the difference between 55% and 45% against a range is usually factors that seem minor at first glance
- Example: Ac Ad 8h 3s v Ad Ac Jd Tc on 9d 7c 2h
- While both hands appear very similar, hand 2 has 2 backdoor flushdraws and a gutshot straight draw, where as hand 1 has only a nacked pair of aces and a running backdoor gutshot straight draw. in 3bet pots, Hand 1 has to Bet fold, Hand 2 can bet call because having multiple pieces of equity allows us to realize the equity for individual minor pieces that we wouldn't be able to realize individually.
- c-betting in close spots becomes OK providing we have backdoor equity
Much more often than in NLHE, We Would Prefer our Opponent to FOLD
- Protecion betting vs the 'value check' aka 'pot control'
- Reason to 'value check/pot control in NLHE (KK on A72r, in NL example)
- Can't make better hands fold or worse hands call
- Worse hands don't have many outs
- Checking increases the chance you get value on later streets
- Checking induces bluffs
While all of these are certainly true in NLHE, almost always the opposite is true in PLO
- Even if condition 1 holds, 2-4 don't
- ex. KKxx on A72r in PLO
- better hands wont fold, worse hands wont often call
- worse hands DO have many outs
- Checking lets your opponent catch up, yet he still won't pay off on later streets
- Checking will not make him bluff often OOP, and often you will induce bluffs where you CANNOT call down
Because hand values run closer together, there are going to be fewer situations where an opponent makes a FTOP mistake by calling more where he makes a FTOP mistake by folding. Basically if he calles he's often a 45% dog, when he folds, we win 100% of the pot without showdown and steal all his equity.
Example: We have the nuts or a huge draw on a wet board, an opponent with a decent hand will very often have 40-45% equity; we get value if he calls, be would prefer that he fold.
So when does value-checking/pot control make sense?
- Our opponents are unlikely to fold, we will often be check-raises, and we have a hand with good equity that isn't strong enough to call a raise or get stacks in/ eg. Nutflush draw on JT8
- We have a marginal made hand plus marginal/backdoor draws/ eg. Ad Kc 8d 6c on Ac 7d 4s
- These situations have a common theme, THE TURN WILL HELP US DEFINE OUR HAND, and therefore we should try get there for free or for as cheaply as possible